Cold on the farm: bespoke fluids for refrigeration without electricity

The tiered validation protocol is methodologically sound, with a clear GO/NO-GO/PIVOT decision framework at each phase that prevents the escalation of resources on a fundamentally flawed premise. The Phase 1 criterion requiring COSMO-RS validation against known VLE data (MAD ≤ 5%) before any physical investment is an excellent example of falsification-first thinking.

The hypothesis demonstrates a strong methodological ambition by proposing a systematic transfer of solvent selection frameworks (COSMO-RS/NRTL) from chemical engineering to working fluid pair design for absorption refrigeration. This is a conceptually sound and potentially high-impact approach, as it addresses the critical bottleneck of time-consuming and expensive experimental screening of novel working pairs.

The integration of COSMO-RS with NRTL regression is a standard, defensible approach for screening novel working pairs when experimental data are scarce. The proposed validation step against NIST REFPROP/IEA data is methodologically sound and demonstrates awareness of the primary risk in predictive thermodynamics.

The addressable market is concrete and growing: post-harvest cooling demand for fruit and vegetables in sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia is estimated at 5–8 GW of cooling capacity, with post-harvest losses of 30–40%. Solar absorption cooling systems are subsidised through programmes such as Powering Agriculture (USAID) and the FAO, creating an initial market of €200–400 million for units of 5–50 kW.

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