in silico
Phase 1: In Silico Validation & Biomarker Stratification
- Objective
- To computationally validate the mechanistic feasibility of the hypothesis, identify potential off-target risks, and stratify patient/donor populations most likely to respond, thereby de-risking subsequent experimental phases.
- Estimated cost
- €1,500-3,000 (mainly for software licenses and HPC time)
- Estimated duration
- 4-6 weeks
- Success criteria
- Predicted ADCC improvement of S239D/I332E over WT · ≥ 4-fold increase in predicted % specific lysis at 10 µg/mL and E:T 10:1 · (Output from the in silico ADCC model)
- FAP expression threshold · ≥ 30% of analyzed tumor samples (e.g., from TCGA) show FAP+ CAFs with estimated density > 10,000 copies/cell · (Deconvolution analysis of transcriptomic data)
- NK cell infiltration · ≥ 20% of analyzed tumor samples show a significant NK cell signature (top quartile of CD3-CD56+ score) · (CIBERSORTx or similar deconvolution tool)
- Therapeutic index estimation · Predicted tumor:FAP expression ratio ≥ 10:1 compared to bone marrow stromal cells · (Comparative analysis of scRNA-seq and proteomic databases)
- Go if
- All four success criteria are met: predicted ADCC improvement is ≥4-fold, FAP density and NK infiltration thresholds are met in a substantial patient subset, and the therapeutic index is acceptable.
- No-go if
- The predicted ADCC improvement is <2-fold, OR FAP density/NK infiltration thresholds are met in <10% of samples, OR the therapeutic index is <5:1, suggesting a high risk of systemic toxicity.
- Pivot if
- If the ADCC model predicts that the afucosylated variant is significantly more potent than S239D/I332E, pivot to prioritize the afucosylated variant for experimental validation. If NK infiltration is universally low, pivot to consider a bispecific antibody (e.g., anti-FAP x anti-CD16) to recruit NK cells more effectively.
- Risks
- In silico models may not accurately predict in vivo ADCC due to oversimplification of the immune synapse.Probability: mediumMitigation: Calibrate the model using published experimental ADCC data (e.g., from trastuzumab). Use conservative estimates for parameters like receptor density and signaling thresholds.
- Public datasets may not be representative of the target patient population or may lack sufficient single-cell resolution for FAP+ CAFs.Probability: mediumMitigation: Cross-validate findings across multiple independent datasets (TCGA, GEO, ICGC). Use both bulk and single-cell approaches to ensure robustness.
- The predicted therapeutic index is based on transcriptomic data, which may not correlate perfectly with protein expression.Probability: lowMitigation: Flag this as a key assumption to be validated in Phase 2 using flow cytometry or IHC on tumor and normal tissue samples.